US Crypto Markets Brace for FOMC Minutes as Congress's Crypto Bill Hopes Fade

US Crypto Markets Brace for FOMC Minutes as Congress's Crypto Bill Hopes Fade

All eyes in the crypto market are on Washington today as the Federal Reserve releases the minutes from its July 28–29 policy meeting, scheduled for 2:00 p.m. ET. That meeting kept the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75%, but the decision was far from unanimous — three regional Fed presidents dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point hike, marking the first unified three-member dissent of its kind since 2016.

Bitcoin has responded with unusual strength heading into the release. The asset climbed roughly 2% this session, moving from near $62,800 over the weekend to above $64,000, decoupling somewhat from equities. The S&P 500, by contrast, pulled back from last week's record highs near 7,800 to close at 7,745, as traders digested oil-driven inflation concerns and weak retail data.

Wall Street and Crypto Diverge Ahead of the Release

Traders are watching for how forcefully the minutes discuss persistent inflation risk and the possibility of a September rate move — currently priced by markets at around 35% odds. A more hawkish tone could pressure both stocks and digital assets simultaneously, while a softer reading may extend Bitcoin's recent bounce. Adding to the backdrop, a high-level White House meeting with crypto industry executives is also taking place today, running alongside the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium in Jackson Hole, where regulators and industry leaders are gathering through August 20.

Congress Runs Out of Runway on the CLARITY Act

While markets focus on monetary policy, the outlook for comprehensive US crypto legislation has darkened sharply. Galaxy Research has cut its probability estimate for the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to just 10%, down from 75% in May, according to Galaxy Digital's head of firmwide research, Alex Thorn. Thorn published the revised figure on August 14, pointing to the Senate's shrinking calendar: lawmakers return to Washington on September 14 with roughly three working weeks before midterm campaign season begins around October 2. Unless a motion to proceed passes immediately upon their return, the bill would need to dominate nearly the entire remaining session to clear the Senate in time. 

Ethics Dispute Blocks a Path Forward

The holdup isn't technical — it's political. A bipartisan proposal from Senators Thom Tillis and Ruben Gallego to restrict crypto holdings by government officials was sent to the White House on July 30, and the resulting deadlock remains unresolved. A cloture motion to proceed with the bill is scheduled to ripen on September 15, but sentiment has soured across the board: Polymarket odds on 2026 passage fell from roughly 82% to about 16% over a comparable stretch.

What It Means for the Market

With legislation stalling, the SEC and CFTC are turning to exemptions and rulemaking to build a crypto framework instead — a faster but far less durable path, since agency-level relief can be reversed by a future administration. Thorn also noted that the SEC's cancelled August 14 meeting removed a near-term catalyst for a planned crypto issuance proposal. For now, traders are left balancing two very different signals from Washington: a Federal Reserve whose internal debate could swing risk appetite within hours, and a Congress whose window for durable crypto rules is closing fast.