Fed Rate-Hike Bets and CLARITY Act Countdown Rattle US Crypto Markets
Bitcoin and Ether wobbled Tuesday as Fed rate-hike odds jumped to 66%, while the crypto industry braces for a make-or-break Senate vote on the CLARITY Act on September 15.
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US crypto markets opened lower on Tuesday as traders repriced the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this month, just as the industry's biggest legislative priority of the year heads toward a decisive vote in the Senate.
Rate-Hike Odds Spike, Dragging Bitcoin and Ether Off Their Highs
Ether opened at $2,467.13 on Tuesday, up 2% from Monday, before slipping back to around $2,454 by mid-morning, part of a broader pullback across crypto, gold, and silver. The retreat came as traders sharply raised their expectations for a Fed rate hike this month: the CME Group's FedWatch tool now shows a 66.4% chance of a 25-basis-point increase, versus a 33.6% chance rates stay unchanged. That marks a dramatic reversal from just a week earlier, when economists put the odds at roughly 60% for no change and only about 40% for a hike. The ongoing war in Iran is complicating the Fed's calculus further, adding another layer of uncertainty to the policy outlook.
Despite the morning dip, the broader market held up reasonably well. Bitcoin sat near the $78,500 level, up about 1.13% on the day, with Ethereum up 2.02% near $2,467, Solana up 1.10% near $103, and XRP up 1.44% at roughly $1.379.
All Eyes on the September 15 Senate Vote on the CLARITY Act
While traders watch the Fed, the industry's regulatory attention is fixed on Capitol Hill. Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed cloture on the motion to proceed to the CLARITY Act, setting up a procedural vote at 2:15 p.m. ET on Tuesday, September 15. Invoking cloture would only limit debate on the motion to proceed — it would not pass the bill itself — and requires 60 votes, meaning Republicans need support from at least seven Democrats or independents.
The House already passed the CLARITY Act by a 294-134 vote in July 2025, and the Senate Banking Committee approved its version 15-9 in May, but disagreements over ethics provisions, anti-money-laundering rules, and how the law would treat decentralized finance have stalled momentum since. Galaxy Research has cut its odds of the bill becoming law in 2026 from 50% down to 30%, citing the shrinking legislative calendar as midterm campaigning approaches.
If passed, the bill would give the crypto industry its first comprehensive federal rulebook, clarifying the regulatory lines between the SEC and CFTC — something exchanges, custodians, and institutional investors have been requesting for years. September 15 will be the first real test of whether that framework has a path forward this year.